Laurie Dealer knows it's a way off but the European Union's desire to move to a cleaner van policy could create a two-tier used market.
This is the opinion of Shoreham Vehicle Auctions MD Alex Wright. "There will become a two tier used system with sub 147g/km vans being stocked predominantly by franchised dealers, with prices well out of the reach of most SME used van buyers.
"Vehicles with emissions above 147g/km will instantly see residuals fall and overall running costs, such as Vehicle Excise Duty increase," he adds.
This combination will become an additional tax on SMEs, the lifeblood of the used van industry. "My fear is that by taxing the higher emission vans. That could dramatically weaken the demand for used vans three years before the proposals (2017) are introduced which will impact the entire market," he adds.
With initial impact just six years away, leasing companies need to be particularly aware of a potential reduction in demand along with utilities, the large outright purchase fleets and the rental sector as they feed in many thousands of vans into the used market each year.
"Those underwriting future residual values will have to treat future price predictions with caution as residuals are likely to fall on both the older and newer vans alike, even before the proposals are introduced.
"While the 'green' low CO2 vans may tick all the right boxes in governmental circles, demand in the used market may not be as high because used buyers such as SMEs don't have the credit rating to secure enough finance to purchase. Franchised dealers may have to find a new buyer for this type of van," he says. "Vans with emissions higher than 147g/km over a three or four year period may well be worth less as the operating costs are likely to rise quite dramatically."
Putting the entire issue into perspective against the Low Emission Zone in London, which is likely to include light vans as the City struggles to meet forthcoming Clean Air regulations in the coming years, he says, some SMEs will simply not buy vans any more to run their businesses.
"What you might have is SMEs buying estate cars or hatchbacks to undertake general deliveries. Rather than face higher used prices for second hand vans, paying an LEZ charge and risking a £500 fine if their vehicle does not meet strict emission criteria, running a non-LEZ exempt car which only incurs a Congestion Charge could be a sensible way forward.
"Health and Safety issues around loads being unsecured in cars could also cause problems for employers who have to meet their Duty of Care responsibilities.
"An estate car can carry out the deliveries in the week and double up as a family car at weekends, without any of the potential issues described which could be seen as a major benefit from SME owners," he concludes.
On the whole, Laurie Dealer agrees with these sentiments, although by 2017 when van users have to consider their options its possible EU will have to have a change of perspective. No organisation, believes Laurie Dealer, has the option to ram through legislation detrimental to a nations economic standing.
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