What happens to haulage if Britain leaves the EU?

Will the economy go to hell or flourish if we exit?

While we can look forward to a golden/dark age ahead for the UK if we leave/stay according to the campaign groups, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

A report by Capital Economics on behalf of Woodford Investment Management states: “Although the impact of Brexit on the British economy is uncertain, we doubt that Britain’s long-term economic outlook hinges on it.”

Open Europe has produced a range – based on deregulation, success of trade deals and so on – that stretches from a 2.2% GDP drop if the UK exits to a 1.6% GDP jump by 2030. The point being, it’s likely to be a marginal effect in reality.

Will the Driver CPC and other regulations get the chop?

Many Commercialmotor.com readers loathe the Driver CPC. So vote for the exit and it’ll get scrapped along with all the other suffocating red tape, right?

Joanne Witheford, senior solicitor at DWF, is not so sure. “Our transport regime is far more onerous than any other European country.

"We are getting it right and it’s unfortunate other European countries aren’t as rigorous. But I really don’t believe that, if we left the EU, we would take a step back and throw out all that legislation,” she said.

Tim Ridyard, partner at Woodfines Solicitors, is of a similar mind. “EC Regulation 1071/2009 underpins the Standard O-licence, but would the UK abandon its fundamentals and repeal the UK legislation, eg shedding the need for formally qualified transport managers? There would surely be a continuation of a pretty similar model,” he said.

Could we charge more for HGV Road User Levy or reduce the number of foreign-registered vehicles coming to the UK?

Under European law the government wasn’t allowed to single out foreign-registered trucks for payment of the levy (hence UK-registered hauliers effectively pay it too but their annual vehicle exercise duty is offset to cancel it out).

It also meant that the maximum the government could charge was ?1,000 a year or ?10 a day, so that’s something that could conceivably be increased.

Where will I find drivers to plug the skills gap?

DX Group and Fagan & Whalley are just two of the latest hauliers to admit that the driver shortage, and the need to use more expensive temporary staff, has hurt their annual profit. With the DfT ruling out a driver training fund (CM 25 February), control of migration, while popular with many voters, would mean, at the very least, restrictions. Logically there might be wage inflation too. Capital Economics points out that although unlikely, if the UK goes its own way it might need to maintain free movement of labour in exchange for access to the common market (like Norway).

How quickly would change occur?

Other than Greenland, no one has ever left the EU before, but technically the UK would have two years to do so.

The Cabinet Office has warned this will be no simple task, “bringing a period of uncertainty” that would see the UK enter a likely protracted period of negotiation (a separate analysis by Open Europe on how long it takes to strike trade deals found the quickest at four years, while the Swiss deal took a decade).

As the Cabinet Office report states: “A vote to leave the EU would be the start, not the end, of a process.”

What would happen to the UK?

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has stated that she would call a referendum on Scotland leaving the UK if the latter leaves Europe.

This story originally appeared in the 3 March issue. Why not subscribe and get 12 issues for just £12?